FIELD NOTES / DIGITAL ASSETS / BTCUSDOriginal assessment
COINBASE · SPOT / USD

Bitcoin, through a different lens.

A point & figure assessment, grounded in Dorsey’s methodology.

RECORDED SNAPSHOT13 OCT 2026 · 22:09 CST14 Oct · 04:09 UTC · not a live feed
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THE WORKING THESIS · INTERPRETATION

Short-term bearish. Broader recovery still in play.

The bounce is a reversal attempt, not yet a point & figure buy signal.

CAUTION, NOT CONFIRMATION
LAST CONFIRMED SIGNALLoading
NEXT LOCAL BUYLoadingOne box above the preceding X top
NEXT SUPPORT BREAKLoadingA new double-bottom sell signal
LARGER BREAKOUTLoadingAbove the September / October ceiling
PRICE STRUCTURE

Point & figure

$500 / BOX3-BOX REVERSAL1D INPUT
× Rising demand○ Falling price Unconfirmed projectionHover, click, or tab to a column to inspect
Inspect the underlying recorded columns
Recorded TradingView P&F columns, not daily candlestick OHLC. Dates mark column starts.
Start date Column Bottom Top Boxes Signal
IF DEMAND RETURNS

Repair first.
Resumption second.

1

Print a local buy signal at .

2

Hold a higher O bottom on a subsequent pullback, then print another buy signal.

3

Clear to break the larger resistance formation.

Conditional interpretation, not a trade instruction.

IF SUPPLY PERSISTS

The downside count
is context, not destiny.

Derived from the completed October breakdown column, using Dorsey’s bearish multiplier of 2. A subsequent support break could reopen the earlier $75,000 to $78,000 trading area.

A price objective has no timing estimate and is not a guaranteed destination.

THE CRITICAL DISTINCTION

Column direction
is not signal direction.

Xcan coexist withSELL

A three-box reversal changes the column. A buy signal requires an X column to exceed the previous X top by one box.

That is why an upward reversal alone does not invalidate the last sell signal.

METHOD & LIMITATIONS

Keep the assessment honest.

DORSEY · 4TH EDITION
Why I’m not calling this a confirmed shakeout

The Close chart resembles part of the setup: equal tops, a double-bottom sell signal, and a reversal attempt above a shorter bullish support line. Dorsey also requires a strong underlying and market uptrend, plus supportive relative strength. Those conditions were not established here. “Possible shakeout” remains a hypothesis, not the primary diagnosis.

The High/Low chart is less reassuring: its shorter September bullish support line reaches $81,500 at the latest completed column, which printed $81,000. This local line was penetrated. That does not prove that every longer-term bullish support line has failed.

Chapter 3 · printed pp. 91–93. Chapter 11 · trend stops versus signal stops.
How the local trend lines are constructed

Trend lines advance one $500 box per column. The optional September bullish support line starts one box below the September O low: $75,500 on Close, $74,500 on High/Low. The optional October bearish resistance line starts one box above the final X top before the sell signal, at $87,000 on either source. These are local guides, not a claim about the full long-term trend. The chart uses equal horizontal and vertical box spacing.

Chapter 2 · printed pp. 51–55. Chapter 11 · bullish support and bearish resistance.
What is recorded, and what is not

Every X and O is rendered from the TradingView columns inspected for the assessment. No missing history is interpolated. Close contains 45 recorded columns beginning in February; High/Low contains 50 beginning in June. The page does not request prices, connect to a brokerage, or update automatically. The pale rightmost X column is the unconfirmed projection observed at the snapshot.

Source and input interval change chart construction. TradingView’s Traditional method means a fixed $500 box, not Dorsey’s price-tiered default box schedule. Price at the snapshot is approximately $83,600. Time-zone label CST refers to Mexico City, UTC−6.

Book references and original analysis

Thomas J. Dorsey, Point and Figure Charting, 4th edition. Chapter 2, printed pp. 57–60: vertical counts and objectives. Chapter 3, printed pp. 73–80: double tops, double bottoms, and declining tops. Chapter 11: signal stops, trend stops, and commodity chart interpretation.